Reducing ultra-processed food consumption in Argentina could prevent 8,747 deaths annually and save 0.84 billion dollars in healthcare costs, according to Gram Research analysis of a 2026 modeling study. However, the environmental benefits depend entirely on what foods replace the junk food. Choosing replacements aligned with national dietary guidelines provides the best health outcomes, though some environmental measures like water use may increase slightly.
A new study from Argentina shows that cutting back on ultra-processed foods like packaged snacks and fast food could prevent nearly 9,000 deaths per year and save billions of dollars in healthcare costs. However, Gram Research analysis reveals an important twist: what you eat instead of junk food matters just as much as cutting it out. Some replacement foods help the environment, while others actually use more water or create more pollution. The research suggests that simply eating less processed food isn’t enough. We also need to choose replacement foods wisely to get both health and environmental benefits at the same time.
Key Statistics
A 2026 modeling study of Argentina found that ultra-processed food consumption caused 9,823 premature deaths and 349,686 years of life lost in 2019 alone, costing 0.84 billion international dollars in indirect healthcare expenses.
According to research reviewed by Gram, reducing ultra-processed foods using guideline-concordant replacement diets could prevent 8,747 deaths annually in Argentina, but environmental outcomes varied dramatically depending on which specific foods replaced the junk food.
A 2026 comparative risk assessment found that some replacement food baskets improved all four environmental indicators when replacing ultra-processed foods, while others increased all four, demonstrating that dietary shifts require careful food selection for environmental benefits.
The Quick Take
- What they studied: Whether reducing ultra-processed foods (packaged snacks, fast food, sugary drinks) improves both human health and environmental conditions, and what happens when people replace these foods with healthier options.
- Who participated: The study used food consumption data from Argentina’s entire population in 2019, representing the eating habits of millions of people across the country.
- Key finding: Cutting ultra-processed food consumption could prevent 8,747 deaths annually, but the environmental impact depends entirely on what foods replace the junk food. Some replacement diets help the environment while others harm it.
- What it means for you: Eating less processed food is definitely good for your health, but choosing what to eat instead matters for the planet. Following national dietary guidelines when replacing junk food provides the best health outcome, though it may increase water use slightly.
The Research Details
Researchers used a computer model to analyze what would happen if Argentina reduced ultra-processed food consumption. They started with real food data from 2019 showing what people actually ate. Then they tested different scenarios, like removing junk food without replacing it, or replacing it with different types of healthier foods. One scenario followed Argentina’s official dietary guidelines, which recommend whole grains, fruits, vegetables, and lean proteins. The model calculated how many deaths could be prevented, how much money would be saved on healthcare, and what would happen to four environmental measures: greenhouse gas emissions, water use, land use, and water pollution from fertilizer runoff.
This research approach is important because it shows that health and environmental goals don’t always go hand in hand. Simply telling people to eat less junk food isn’t enough. We need to understand which replacement foods create the best outcomes for both human health and the planet. This helps policymakers design better food policies that achieve multiple goals at once.
The study used nationally representative dietary data, meaning it reflects what real people in Argentina actually eat. The researchers tested multiple scenarios to show how different choices lead to different outcomes. However, the study is specific to Argentina’s food system and eating patterns, so results may differ in other countries. The model relies on assumptions about how people would change their eating habits, which may not perfectly match real-world behavior.
What the Results Show
In 2019, ultra-processed foods were responsible for 9,823 premature deaths in Argentina, meaning people died earlier than they would have otherwise. These deaths represent 349,686 years of life lost, or roughly 36 years per person on average. The economic cost was enormous: 0.84 billion international dollars in indirect healthcare expenses and lost productivity. When researchers modeled the most ambitious reduction scenario, they found that replacing ultra-processed foods with healthier options could prevent 8,747 of these deaths annually. This represents a major public health victory. However, the environmental outcomes varied dramatically depending on which foods replaced the junk food. When people replaced ultra-processed foods with options aligned with Argentina’s National Dietary Guidelines, all four environmental measures showed mixed results. Water use and water pollution from fertilizer runoff actually increased, while greenhouse gas emissions and land use stayed roughly the same.
The study revealed that different food groups contributed opposing environmental effects. Some foods that are healthy to eat require more water or create more pollution. For example, certain protein sources and dairy products may be nutritious but environmentally costly. The research showed that environmental benefits are not automatic when reducing ultra-processed foods. Some replacement diets improved all four environmental measures, while others made all four worse. This means the specific foods chosen matter enormously for environmental outcomes.
Previous research has shown that ultra-processed foods harm health, but this study adds important new information about environmental impacts. Earlier work didn’t always consider what people would eat instead of junk food. This research shows that the replacement diet is just as important as the reduction itself. The findings align with growing evidence that sustainable food systems require thinking about both health and environmental factors together.
The study is based on Argentina’s specific food system and eating patterns, so results may not apply to other countries with different agriculture and food availability. The model assumes people will change their eating habits in specific ways, but real behavior might differ. The research doesn’t account for how food prices might change if consumption patterns shift dramatically. Additionally, the study focuses on four environmental measures and doesn’t evaluate other important factors like biodiversity or soil health.
The Bottom Line
Reduce ultra-processed food consumption, as the health benefits are clear and substantial (strong evidence). When replacing junk food, choose options that align with national dietary guidelines for best health outcomes (strong evidence). Consider the environmental impact of replacement foods, particularly water use and fertilizer pollution, though this requires more research to optimize (moderate evidence). Work with policymakers to design food policies that achieve both health and environmental goals simultaneously (moderate evidence).
Everyone should care about this research, especially people concerned about their health or the environment. Policymakers designing food and agriculture policies should use these findings to create strategies that benefit both human health and the planet. Food companies and retailers can use this information to develop products that are both nutritious and environmentally sustainable. People with chronic diseases linked to ultra-processed foods should prioritize reducing consumption. Those living in Argentina will see the most direct application, though the principles apply globally.
Health benefits from reducing ultra-processed foods can appear relatively quickly. Blood pressure and cholesterol may improve within weeks to months. Weight loss and reduced inflammation typically appear within 2 to 3 months of consistent dietary change. Environmental benefits from widespread dietary shifts would take years to become measurable, as they depend on agricultural practices changing across entire regions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does eating less processed food help the environment?
Not automatically. A 2026 study found that reducing ultra-processed foods can improve or harm the environment depending on which replacement foods you choose. Following dietary guidelines provides health benefits but may increase water use slightly.
How many lives could be saved by reducing ultra-processed food?
Research shows that reducing ultra-processed foods in Argentina could prevent 8,747 deaths annually. The original consumption pattern caused 9,823 premature deaths in 2019, representing 349,686 years of life lost.
What should I eat instead of ultra-processed foods?
Choose foods aligned with national dietary guidelines: whole grains, fruits, vegetables, legumes, nuts, and lean proteins. These provide the best health outcomes, though some may require more water to produce than others.
How quickly will I see health benefits from eating less junk food?
Blood pressure and cholesterol may improve within weeks. Weight loss and reduced inflammation typically appear within 2 to 3 months of consistent dietary change, depending on individual factors.
Does this research apply to my country or just Argentina?
The specific numbers apply to Argentina’s food system, but the core finding applies globally: reducing ultra-processed foods improves health, but environmental benefits depend on replacement food choices. Your country’s results may differ based on local agriculture.
Want to Apply This Research?
- Track the percentage of meals containing ultra-processed foods daily, aiming to reduce from baseline by 10% each week. Log specific replacement foods chosen to monitor whether they align with national dietary guidelines.
- Use the app to identify your top three ultra-processed foods consumed most frequently. For each one, select a guideline-aligned replacement from the app’s food database. Set weekly goals to swap one processed food for its healthier alternative.
- Monitor weekly ultra-processed food consumption percentage and monthly health markers like energy levels and digestion quality. Track which replacement foods you choose most often to ensure they align with dietary guidelines. Review quarterly progress on both health improvements and environmental impact scores provided by the app.
This research is a modeling study based on Argentina’s 2019 food consumption data and may not apply directly to other populations or time periods. The findings show associations and projections, not guaranteed outcomes. Individual health results from dietary changes vary based on personal factors, medical history, and overall lifestyle. Consult with a healthcare provider or registered dietitian before making significant dietary changes, especially if you have existing health conditions or take medications. This article is for informational purposes and should not replace professional medical advice.
This research translation is published by Gram Research, the science division of Gram, an AI-powered nutrition tracking app.